Search results for "Mixture distribution"
showing 6 items of 6 documents
Assessing fat-tailed sequential forecast distributions for the Dow-Jones index with logarithmic scoring rules
2007
We use the logarithmic scoring rule for distributions to assess a variety of fat-tailed sequential forecasting distributions for the Dow-Jones industrial stock index from 1980 to the present. The methodology applies Bruno de Finetti''s contributions to understanding how to compare the quality of different coherent forecasting distributions for the same sequence of observations, using proper scoring rules. Four different forms of forecasting distributions are compared: a mixture Normal, a mixture of convex combinations of three Normal distributions, a mixture exponential power distribution, and a mixture of a convex combination of three exponential power distributions. The mixture linear com…
Differential models of twin correlations in skew for body-mass index (BMI)
2018
Background Body Mass Index (BMI), like most human phenotypes, is substantially heritable. However, BMI is not normally distributed; the skew appears to be structural, and increases as a function of age. Moreover, twin correlations for BMI commonly violate the assumptions of the most common variety of the classical twin model, with the MZ twin correlation greater than twice the DZ correlation. This study aimed to decompose twin correlations for BMI using more general skew-t distributions. Methods Same sex MZ and DZ twin pairs (N = 7,086) from the community-based Washington State Twin Registry were included. We used latent profile analysis (LPA) to decompose twin correlations for BMI into mul…
Embedding Quantum into Classical: Contextualization vs Conditionalization
2014
We compare two approaches to embedding joint distributions of random variables recorded under different conditions (such as spins of entangled particles for different settings) into the framework of classical, Kolmogorovian probability theory. In the contextualization approach each random variable is "automatically" labeled by all conditions under which it is recorded, and the random variables across a set of mutually exclusive conditions are probabilistically coupled (imposed a joint distribution upon). Analysis of all possible probabilistic couplings for a given set of random variables allows one to characterize various relations between their separate distributions (such as Bell-type ine…
Analysis and assessment of trace element contamination in offshore sediments of the Augusta Bay (SE Sicily): A multivariate statistical approach base…
2014
Abstract An application of multivariate statistical methods is provided to identify anthropogenic contaminants and lithogenic elements in offshore sediments collected near the heavily industrialized Augusta Bay, Sicily. An exploratory statistical technique, based on canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and mixture density estimation approach, is used for distinguishing between natural and anthropogenic contributions of trace elements in the investigated sediments. Following the intensive industrialization of Augusta area, marine sediments reveal the severe impact of local anthropogenic activities for many elements (e.g. As, Cd, Hg, Pb, and Sb), which are considered very dangerous for the en…
Sequentially Forecasting Economic Indices Using Mixture Linear Combinations of EP Distributions
2021
This article displays an application of the statistical method moti- vated by Bruno de Finetti's operational subjective theory of probability. We use exchangeable forecasting distributions based on mixtures of linear com- binations of exponential power (EP) distributions to forecast the sequence of daily rates of return from the Dow-Jones index of stock prices over a 20 year period. The operational subjective statistical method for comparing distributions is quite different from that commonly used in data analysis, because it rejects the basic tenets underlying the practice of hypothesis test- ing. In its place, proper scoring rules for forecast distributions are used to assess the values o…
Joint probability distributions for wind speed and direction. A case study in Sicily
2015
In this study we analyze data of hourly average wind speed and direction measured at three different sampling stations located in Sicily (Italy) and provide a statistical model for their joint probability density function. Singly truncated from below Normal Weibull mixture distribution and a linear combination of von Mises distributions are used to model wind speed and direction. Sites with heterogeneous local conditions (prevailing wind direction and/or elevation) have been considered in order to investigate the reliability of the model here taken into consideration.